Polar Vortex and El Niño Clash Ahead of Thanksgiving
Polar Vortex and El Niño Clash Ahead of Thanksgiving
US · Published Nov 13, 2026
• A rare and early-season breakdown of the polar vortex, triggered by a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event, is set to bring a significant cold air mass into the United States just in time for Thanksgiving.
• This phenomenon, which typically occurs in January or February, is clashing with the warmer conditions expected from the ongoing El Niño climate pattern.

Impact & Risks

The early-season polar vortex breakdown is expected to bring a sudden and significant drop in temperatures across the United States, particularly during Thanksgiving weekend. Regions such as the Northern Rockies, Montana, the Dakotas, the Midwest, and the Great Lakes may experience the season's first snowfall. While the cold snap may not be as severe as those occurring later in winter, the abrupt shift from the above-average temperatures seen earlier this fall could feel particularly jarring. The clash with El Niño's typically warmer and drier conditions may also lead to unpredictable weather patterns, including increased precipitation that could result in localized snowfall.

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